From bright young things through defeated former hopefuls to rank outsiders, here are the Republicans seeking to run against Hillary Clinton in the next presidential election
On February 10, 2007, Barack Obama announced his intention to become President. That he did so 633 days before the election was extraordinary - but it paid off. Vigorously campaigning for nearly two years, Obama won recognition with voters and rode a wave of populist passion that overcame Hillary Clinton and John McCain
Having witnessed Obama’s success, eight years later, Republican presidential hopefuls are gearing up. The next election isn’t until November 8, 2016, but the battle to succeed Barack Obama is well underway. Still, while we already know the Democratic candidate’s identity (clue: she’s lived in the White House before), the Republican primary field is vast. Here’s my take on twenty names to watch, and the three I believe have the best chance of winning the GOP nomination.
A 2016 matchup between the American royal families - Bush vs. Clinton – is very possible, and Jeb has recently been signaling he intends to run. Popular with establishment Republicans in the party’s business wing, his potential makes him an early favorite for the GOP nomination. The former Florida governor is also a Spanish-speaker who has worked to build the party’s appeal with minority voters.
Still, he’s no sure victor. Jeb’s candidacy would face skepticism from conservatives alienated by his moderate stance on immigration reform and national education standards. More simply, other Republicans fear that ‘Bush’ won’t be able to beat ‘Clinton’.
My prediction: 2nd Most Likely Nominee
Ben Carson
A retired neurosurgeon and passionate social conservative, Ben Carson has won conservative hearts by his opposition to President Obama’s policies. Becaue he is black, he also appeals to those Republicans who believe the party must urgently expand its minority base. While an outsider for the nomination, his quiet intellectualism is likely to generate attention. Speaking at conservative events across the country, Carson is making a strong impression with activists.
Chris Christie
A former prosecutor and since 2010, Governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie has a reputation for aggressive, plain-speaking charisma (his town hall meetings are always interesting). This style would help him in a contest against the more rigid Hillary Clinton. Moreover, popular with establishment Republicans for his pro-business pragmatism, his reforms to New Jersey’s bankrupt pension system have won him plaudits.
More problematic for his prospects is Christie’s praise of President Obama shortly before the 2012 election, which angered conservative activists. In the coming months, expect Christie to make increasingly tough criticisms of the President. He’ll hope that in doing so, he’ll win over GOP primary voters. If Christie succeeds, he’ll be a frontrunner for 2016.
My prediction: Most Likely
Ted Cruz
A Harvard Law educated Senator from Texas, and hawkish on everything from foreign policy to immigration, Ted Cruz is the favorite of Tea Party conservatives. Cruz made a name for himself in 2013, when he helped shut down the Federal government in protest against President Obama’s health care law. While some Republicans believe Cruz is a self-serving ideologue, there’s no question that he represents a large swathe of the GOP base who despise compromise. Cruz is using this sentiment to argue that Republicans will lose in 2016 if they pick a more moderate conservative like Jeb Bush.
For Cruz, the key will be whether he convinces enough Republican primary voters that he can beat Hillary Clinton. Still, his supporters are fervent. I was recently at a dinner with a number of senior conservative operatives and he was the favored candidate.
My prediction: 3rd Most Likely
Carly Fiorina
A former Republican Senate candidate in California, and former CEO at Hewlett-Packard, Carly Fiorina has been testing the waters for a run next year. While she wouldn’t be a front runner, her business experience would attract some attention from primary voters. If Fiorina does enter the race, expect her name to be mentioned as a Vice Presidential prospect.
Rudy Giuliani
An underdog for sure, but amidst the rise of Isil (Giuliani’s time as New York Mayor earned him strong counter-terrorism credentials) and the GOP’s pursuit of a candidate who can win independent voters, Giuliani may consider another run. Perhaps signaling interest, Giuliani gave a number of interviews at the end of last year in which he strongly criticised President Obama’s stance on policing issues.
Lindsey Graham
A national security hawk close to John McCain, Senator Lindsey Graham has stated he might enter his name in order to bring attention to foreign policy issues. His candidacy would receive a warm reception from neo-conservatives.
Mike Huckabee
A Baptist minister and former Governor of Arkansas (where Bill Clinton was also Governor), Mike Huckabee ended his Fox News show this weekend to consider a Presidential run. If he does run, he’ll compete with Rick Santorum for the social conservative wing of the GOP. That being said, his best hope is the Vice Presidential slot.
Bobby Jindal
Governor of Louisiana Bobby Jindal has recently been visiting Washington to meet with senior Republican activists and national media outlets. Signifying his ambitions, Jindal has buffered his Presidential credibility with foreign policy op-eds and think tank speeches. Although he trails behind other 2016 hopefuls, as a young (43), conservative Indian-American, Jindal will try and build his popularity by appealing to the American dream. He has a template: Barack Obama.
John Kasich
The Governor of Ohio, John Kasich has won plaudits for his budget management. He’s now campaigning for a balanced budget amendment to the US Constitution. With the national debt a key conservative concern, Kasich’s efforts may pay dividends should he run for President. Still, Kasich is unpopular with some conservatives for accepting federal spending under President Obama’s health care law. He’s an underdog, but his popularity in Ohio (a key swing state in Presidential elections) means he can’t be ruled out.
Susana Martinez
You never know… 2016 might involve two women at the top of each party’s ticket. One of a growing field of female Republican leaders, the New Mexico Governor is popular with minorities and female voters, and was recently re-elected in a state where President Obama defeated Mitt Romney by ten points. Having proven that Republicans can be competitive in Democratic states, Martinez makes a tempting candidate for conservatives wary about being outmaneuvered by Hillary Clinton.
George Pataki
A former Governor of New York, Pataki is actively considering a run for the White House. Although he hasn’t been on the national media radar for the past few years, as a moderate Republican, he may feel he could take advantage of inevitable splits among primary voters.
Rand Paul
A Senator from Kentucky and former ophthalmologist, Paul is the son of the Republican Party’s libertarian Don, Ron Paul. But where Ron struggled to escape his reputation as an unpredictable outsider, Rand has joined his moderate libertarianism to more traditional positions in areas like foreign policy. In this sense, he’s made libertarianism mainstream.
While he’ll struggle to attract the support of establishment Republicans – who regard him with great skepticism – and is unlikely to win the nomination, Paul’s popularity with younger and independent-minded Republicans means that he’ll be a force to be reckoned with.
Mike Pence
A former Congressman, now Governor of Indiana, Mike Pence is popular with Republicans for his quiet conservative credentials. Having carefully avoided controversy, he’s put himself in a strong position to make a run. Pence may, however, find himself caught between Ted Cruz’s conservative hardliners and Jeb Bush’s establishment conservatives.
Regardless, Pence’s safe reputation means that come 2016, he’ll be on the radar as a Vice Presidential running mate.
Rick Perry
Since his audacious self-destruction during the 2012 Presidential primaries, 14-year Texas Governor, Rick Perry has had an astonishing comeback. Alongside building his foreign policy credentials, he has presided over an economic boom in Texas. As I’ve noted before, the positive contrast between Texas and Democratic-run California is undeniable.
Should he run, Perry’s fortunes will rest on his ability to escape his 2012 legacy and win the trust of GOP primary voters. As 2015 goes on, the polls will be a good indicator of his success.
Mitt Romney
Popular with Republicans who feel he should have won, benefiting from a pre-existing donor base and with strong name recognition, Romney has the foundation to make another run for the Presidency. Further, with Romney’s 2012 foreign policy positions having gained credibility postRussia’s invasion of Ukraine and the rise of Isil, the former Governor has earned greater support in the general electorate. A poll taken last summer suggested he would now defeat President Obama.
While many Republicans believe Romney’s time has come and gone (I’m frequently told he’s ‘a loser’), Romney is dropping major hints that he’s about to run for a third time. If he does, don’t write him off.
Marco Rubio
This young, charismatic Senator from Florida was once seen as the Republican President in waiting. Then, in 2013, he jumped onto the third rail of conservative politics – embracing bi-partisan immigration reform. Since that point, Rubio has struggled with the GOP.
Yet all is not lost. Ironically, it may be President Obama that saves him. A Cuban-American, Rubio is now galvanising conservative opposition to President Obama’s rapprochement with Cuba. Regardless, if Rubio’s Florida mentor, Jeb Bush, decides to run, most analysts believe Rubio will delay.
Rick Santorum
Rick Santorum is already a favourite of social conservatives, but since 2012 he has worked hard to cultivate the image of a Republican economic populist. In 2014, he released a book – ‘Blue Collar Conservatives’ – which argues that Republicans must revive America’s manufacturing industry.
Though Santorum is very unlikely to win the GOP nomination, if he does run, he’ll challenge the growing libertarian sentiments espoused by Rand Paul. This speaks to a broader truth: it doesn’t take victory to affect a US primary.
Donald Trump
A showman through and through, Donald Trump regularly throws his name into the Presidential mixer. Although he wouldn’t be able to secure the GOP nomination, he might generate a small populist following. Still, Republican leaders will hope he doesn’t enter the race: they’ll worry that his inclusion would turn Republican primary debates into a circus.
Scott Walker
The recently re-elected governor of Wisconsin is adored by conservatives for successfully challenging powerful unions in the badger state. On paper, he looks like the man who could unify the GOP’s tea party and establishment wings.
Some Republicans, however, worry that Walker lacks the charisma to energise a national electorate. The success of Walker’s candidacy is perhaps the hardest to predict. It could end in the Presidency, or in aHoward Dean-style meltdown.
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